Center · Read · October 23, 2026
Oct 22 · Hegseth bars troops from using nonpublic information to bet on prediction markets
The Hill: Hegseth bars US forces from using undisclosed information to bet on Polymarket, Kalshi
Grade B (82/100). The memo, a Pentagon official's confirmation, the penalties and earlier betting cases; one unnamed-expert claim
Lehrer score 82/100 (−18 unnamed source/unsourced figure: National security experts have warned bad actors can leverage the markets to identify upcoming operations (no expert named)). Fixed scale: 90+ A, 80s B, 70s C, 60s D, under 60 F → B.
National security experts have warned bad actors can leverage the markets to identify upcoming operations (no expert named)
Splits: The memo, a Pentagon official's confirmation, the penalties and earlier betting cases; one unnamed-expert claim
- Broken. Rule: unnamed source/unsourced figure (National security experts have warned bad actors can leverage the markets to identify upcoming operations (no expert named))
Same story: CBS News, New York Post